Iran: A plan to resolve the impasse

Amongst the many things that has the world excited is the situation with Iran and their illegitimate president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. While many US governments have swung the pendulum of regime change vs. ignoring regimes from North Korea to Iran through Syria, Lebanon, Libya and others, one thing is almost always clear, some regimes are definitely counter productive to their own people and the world and require adjustment of some sorts. In my book Iran is certainly one of those...without the aid of any media or government spin (ours or others).

Iran's economic health is very good and given a chance to fully participate in the world's business, it will be a thriving force. In reviewing world banks data about Iran and the CIA, I found that;

• Population: 71MM (2008)
• GDP: $258B (2008) with 2.6% (2009) growth
• Unemployment: 11% in 2009
• Per capita income of $13K
• Debt: 19.4% to 7.4% of GDP (data is suspect based on source)
• CO2 emissions higher than their neighbors
• Literacy - 82% of 15yrs or older
• Low mortality of -5 of every 1000

Based on some of these data points and more as well as the assets the nation possess, it does appear that Iran has tremendous upside if its government sheds it current approach to governing its people and relationship with the world. Like Cuba, this country is ripe for significant tourism and connection with its people as soon as the climate improves.

This basic information about Iran in mind, let us understand what the true issues are that drive us to act against it;

1. Nuclear proliferation and the opaque stance of the government - This to me is a serious issue and is exacerbated in the new world we live in where Islamic fundamentalism is perpetuating unprecedented terrorism. This is particularly concerning since Iran's stated driver for their Nuclear program is a the anhiliation of the Zionist state of Israel. That is very unnerving, if I were to live next to the threat.

2. Iran is in violation of the IAEA security standards.

3. Human right violations against its own people - No government should be allowed to treat its people poorly. On that scale and how one would define "poorly", many countries starting with China would stand out. While there are global human rights organization, they are without teeth. The only way for Iranian's to be better treated and given a fair chance of competition with the rest of the world is to have a leadership that is willing to join the world community and open itself up to change.

4. While development of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes such as energy generation, medical use is something that should be encouraged, however in the case of Iran, it has been deceitful in its claims of not enriching uranium. It has gone back and forth on its true intention and certainly hidden its development sites from IAEA which raises the level of mis-trust.

So lets talk solution then. Plenty of options that I have heard over the last couple of years that I have weighed upon and think one of those has merits. It has merits only if executed appropriately even if that is stating the obvious. Lets just review the options the world community has to force Iran to change its way;

1. Military action: Iran is a large country with targets spread all over its geography. Last count there were 10 nuclear installations, most of them well underground making them even more difficult to access. A look at the adjoining map gives you an indication to how spread out the installations are. This obviously is not the super secret or latest, which I am sure would be wider and deeper. In addition Iran's military power is not to be sneezed at and would take significant effort and cost to overcome for a US led coalition. Air only incursions as an approach to minimize human life have been analyzed and shed due to the depth of the nuclear installations that even our bunker busters that were used in Afghanistan will be useless. Military experts have essentially agreed to the fact that invasion of Iran is a more costly and fool-hardy approach to resolving this crisis. Further....who really has the money without completely bankrupting themselves, considering any coalition would mean 80% US and 20% other, we are already thinly stretched to venture another adventure.

2. Diplomacy: One of the tenets of diplomacy is a level of trust parties bring to the table. Considering that is an item that has eroded since the Shah was booted out in the 70's and currently is negative, it is unlikely discussions will go forward. The various interlocutors on Iran's behalf are themselves not sure about Iran's intent making it awkward for them to make a case. Iran has had several opportunities to come to the table especially from the start of President Obama's term when he famously quoted at his inguration speech, "...are willing to unclench their fist, they will find an extended hand from us" as well as eloquent Cairo university speech have clearly not encouraged Iran. Even the efforts of our partners in the EU have not received much hope. While diplomacy is certainly a window keep ajar, our next option is really the key to make the needle move.

3. Sanctions: Historically speaking sanctions are toothless dud's. However if it were to be enforced, in the case of Iran it could yield spectacular results long term while in the short term will hurt its population, a sad collateral damage. To emphasize this let us consider the map here for a moment;

• We own the eastern boundary directly or indirectly in Pakistan and Afghanistan. That said there are a few tactical challenges here but given the terrain of the region and the people's unflinching loyalty to a quick buck. The red lines indicate a tentative relationship with the nations owning those boundaries.
  
• In the south our naval prowess combined with already existing presence in the straits of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf, Gulf countries and Saudi Arabia gives us tremendous influence in the area.
• In the West, our new friends in Iraq and historical enemies of Iran will ensure we will continue to own that border for this purpose.
• In the North Western side, Turkey, Armenia and Azerbaijan are all US allies who want to be part of the NATO or are large US aid recipients. Time to call in those chits. In addition we have bases in the area with strong relationships and hence the green lines.
  
• In the north, the Caspian sea with the help of the Russians, will again be in our column.
• Lastly on the North Eastern side, Turkmenistan is a country we are most likely going to have a base in sooner or later. Right now we have an agreement for the NATO to be a supplier and transit point. We can assume we will have sufficient influence to enforce sanctions from there too.

So the approach to sanctions against Iran would need to be a complete seize of all routes, land, air and water in to the country. Allowing nothing to go in or come out. There are obviously implications to it that are more tactical than strategic. As a result we will be able to ride them out and bend Iran back in the direction of the right.

Let us consider the implications so there is clarity on what they are and how we can mitigate them;

1. Immediate inflation in the country as traders hoard and government rations. This could hurt the majority of the population that is considered lower middle class. However it could also trigger the final assault on a unpopular regime and potentially change it for the better. One can hope.

2. Trade partners will hurt, specifically China, Russia and Dubai. This could be telling to the global financial markets but again I have to think it is temporary as the overall exposure to Iran has been limited for many years for both the EU and US.

3. Oil, most folks would think would be the largest impact. There is more myth than reality here. Reason being there are doubts about the reliability of official OPEC reserves estimates, which are not provided with any form of audit or verification that meet external reporting standards. Further a system of country production quotas was introduced in the 1980s, partly based on reserves levels, and there has been dramatic increases in reported reserves among OPEC producers. While there is no doubt Iran has the 3rd largest known reserves in the world and hence it the 3rd largest producer, with sanctions, OPEC can increase production through its other member states. Bottomline we wont miss Iran's oil for a while....however OPEC has to sign up to ensure oil prices and futures do not sky rocket while ensuring production levels match current levels. I think it can be made possible.

4. There may be a surge of terrorist activities by sympathetic groups to Iran such as the Hezbollah. There is not specific mitigation than what most governments are already engaged in.

It is necessary to help Iran change its mind when the US, Russia and other countries are taking definite steps to reduce nuclear arsenal. Infact it is President Obama's vision to see a world without nuclear weapons. In such a futuristic environment, fortified by the fact that we should be expending resources on human progress not on ways to destroy it. Iran with its intrinsic assets and potential should direct those energies to improve their peoples stock, take a leadership role to help with Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, reduce its support of the Hezbollah and terrorism for what ever reasons and join the world's community. We could do with more peace.

So bottomline, I say we need to squeeze Iran...I think 30-90day's from a disciplined and enforced seize from the day it starts should be able to get Iran to;
1. Open the doors to IAEA for a thorough investigation
2. Shutting down of all enrichment plants
3. Change their stance on Israel

This could lead to Iran re-joining of the world community and more one day (hope).

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Jihadi - Will you ever become a friend?

I have been thinking about a variety of issues as have a lot of people, issues that concern us directly everyday or those that have the potential to, those that the media has made the central focus of such as the suffering economy by way of rising unemployment, foreclosures, tanking stock market and investments or political challenges or now the swine flu. Unless these impact you directly, it is just news on the TV or other media, however I suspect many have good and viable ideas to solve some of these challenges that may never see the light of the day. I would like to encourage those ideas to come out as often as possible and shared as virally as possibly as there could be a real solution that may work.

Here is a solution to the growing Islamic fundamentalism and its negative implications to many parts of the world. I truly believe this can work, however there are some tactical challenges I envision. Solutions to those will be some that I will explore in the days to come, but for now here is how I look at it holistically.

The way I understand Islamic fundamentalism, is that groups of individuals around the world have chosen to preach and practice the Koran in a very narrow and strict manner. Perhaps a simplistic view, but true nevertheless. My meager attempts of reading of the Koran do not indicate that those who do not follow the prophet are infidels and hence should be killed. Nor did I find anything to do with how a way of life should be followed or else….While the genesis of how we got here is widely documented by the many experts in this field, one thing is clear, that it took many decades from the 60’s when the US helped the Pakistani’s create a force of Jihadi’s to fight a proxy war against India, to a fairly similar strategy to fight the Soviets in the 80’s in Afghanistan. The Iraq-Iran war also fed the growing ranks of this class of mercenaries who were nurtured by religion rather than the money. The sudden hole left by the Soviets in Afghanistan allowed for a large part of this group to organize themselves under the banner of the Taliban and form a working government. Most of us know the story from then on to where we are. While all of this was happening, the world from an economic perspective was getting more and more intertwined, i.e. a global economic village in the works. The technologies that supported economic globalization, also allowed for social collaborations across the globe which was and is generally good. However it also provided a platform for the group now being fashioned as Islamic fundamentalists to reach further and wider to preach and recruit. The influence this group was having on the wide fringes of desperate, hopeless and perhaps even the religiously motivated was increasing and is still.

While the US government with our many allies around the world battles, (what one president so inappropriately and unintelligently called the crusades), I am not sure I have seen or read any strategic plans for the ultimate quelling of the scourge of Islamic fundamentalism. I am sure there must be such well thought of strategies within the deep think tanks of the governments or other intellectual bodies, but I want to share my solution blue print nonetheless.

The plan I propose resolves in to three parts with a timeline that would take that of at least one human generation. There are tactical attributes of this plan that need to be implemented everyday starting today, but the ultimate result will take at least half the amount of time it took to create it for sustained solution that becomes routine.

The solution is three fold;

1. Population control
There in an uncontrolled rise in population in the pool of sympathizers, this at the very least exacerbates the problem. While religious followers of the faith of Islam are given the right to have 4 wives at any time, it all computes to having very large families. The social hierarchy manifests itself in that the head of the family decides the course for the family. In a situation where the head sympathizes or actively participates in the activities of the fundamentalists, there is little to no choice for the rest in the family but to follow. There is no greater and purer form of recruiting than from your own blood. Controlling this population is critical and necessary. So then begs the question, how does one do it in a humane and legal manner with out depressing the sensitivities involved? Here are a few that I can think of;
a. Education – Educate the perils of over production inside, both from a social as well as an economic perspective. If ever marketing of thoughts could be put to good use, I can not see a better opportunity. I am sure they would appreciate a bowl of rice for one person is meager as is, but for 2,3 or more people would constitute hunger. How can hungry people fight?
b. Birth control – If air dropping leaflets disparaging your leaders or food products was acceptable, I think airdropping condoms should be ok too. There are multiple other ways to distribute birth control items. Barter is an acceptable trade practice in many of the mountainous regions, home to burgeoning jihadi’s, 2 kebabos for birth control!
c. Incentives – The Chinese did this well for years though they are suffering now with not having an optimal mix of their large population in the age groups they should be. Some lessons from there combined with pure capitalistic pay for performance (or lack of it in this case) for not producing children. A years worth of food @ $100 as many philanthropic advertisements insist, could feed a family. Let us put it to use for where it may be worthwhile.

2. Science and Math
Children in this realm are taught the Koran in Madrasah’s and from what I understand, a version of it that is clearly extreme. This education is complimented by from what the media and other books by the experts claim, a doctrine of hate of the non-Islamic ways or the ways of the infidel. These children would not know then that 2+2 =4 or that the earth revolves around the earth and is round or other basic math and science elements. In my opinion this is a detriment to their overall learning and needs to be remedied. My second solution proposal is to get these children on an educational diet of science and math. Encourage them to be scientifically curious, to question what they learn and what the implications are. The critical question in this case is not so much an agreement on the need of science and math in their educational diet, but as to how would one go about delivering it.
The world or us have had enormous experience with propaganda wars, some popular and some not so. I am sure a very creative roadmap to delivery could be developed by our friends in the media, movies, some religious groups who will still knock on my door and certainly the government. We have done this successfully world over, drawn many millions of immigrants to the shore of our great nation, while skillfully selling coke and Nike products to both friends and foes (click here for a hilarious illustration in support of what I mention). Airdrops are a great source of educational delivery. Every one of those relief food packets could include a birth control artifact and a lesson in Math and Science. I have some specific ideas on how we could deliver without inciting anymore hatred or consequence than that is currently on the table, and will address them separately.

3. Optimal leverage of the new talent pool
Now consider we have a population that is not as fundamentalistic as it is today, less in number and definitely more educated than today. What do we do with them, since if that is not addressed; our problems will have quadrupled by having a vastly more dangerous enemy.
Smartly looking at it, the resources can help themselves if the right environment is created. Creating the right environment would now be a basic by product of what we may have achieved by a lower in number but a vastly better educated population.
a. In order to sustain all this education we are talking about needing teachers.
b. In order to provide organization and control to what is proposed, we will need a government that continues to improve,
c. Business around the world may now have a viable market where they can actually start making some money.
Our quasi reengineered population can feed in to this cycle of capitalism. In reality on April 17, 2009 several countries, presumably those that are at the most risk by the vengeance of the jihadi’s agreed to provide as much as $5Billion to the Pakistani’s to combat Taliban and the jihadi’s. The US itself will be spending $1.5B every year. My sense is that we take this war gradually away from the urban battlefields to the class rooms, from the mountains of Waziristan to a sustaining economic situation for the participants. Take this battle away from religion to a way of life of improved life all around. Let us put these billions of dollars in efforts to improve the hopeless situations, to better education. I say get the Halliburton’s and other contractors in Iraq, Afghanistan and others to use local staff up to 90% including the leadership. Empower people with their own destiny and please don’t be patronizing….the west may be superior economically, but yet there is lot to learn from the east. Let us be humble as the new president is eloquently doing time and again these days. Get collaborations with the local talent, business leaders going vs. hemorrhaging the billions in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Admittedly some of this sounds very easy or perhaps naïve, and the reasons why this can not work lengthy. My perspective is that we need to learn from the past and fight with our strengths. We need to take this fight away from the religions, simply because no prophet, “wanna” be prophet or god almighty himself would condone violence or hatred being perpetuated against his children…all of us. Once you take it away from religion, it boils down to a group of people whose want to fight or hate is generally stemming from a certain level of hopelessness about their own situation. Lack of basic human needs, intense sun (I suspect that has something to do with all this craziness) in the middle-east, lack of understanding of our way or life and yes some of our poorly developed foreign polices (Iraq, Pakistan, Cuba(!!!), North Korea, China, India, Libya, Israel and so on). All that said we need to re-set this now. We need to be able to call a timeout and reset how we look at things and what we do from there.

So while multiple discussions and debates occur about how bad things are and will get, here is my solution.